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Re: [802.3_100GNGOPTX] Emerging new reach space (RESEND)



Dan,

Sorry if this is a repeat to you, but you said you were not getting emails at your APM address to which it was first sent. 

Paul

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So far I am not getting hung up on the discrepancies in the DC size distributions.  Even if we knew them precisely, we would still not be able to tell the cabling topologies used within them.  That is why I prefer the approach of looking at the cable lengths themselves.  A decade ago this would not have been possible, but the advent and popularity of pre-terminated cabling now allows us that insight.  The cabling data and analysis I presented represents a good view of how our customer base builds data centers.  Those customers can be generally classified as from the “Fortune 1000”, so are also very relevant as consumers of our next-generation output. 

 

The survey and cabling distribution data presented to 802.3 over the years does indicate that data centers are evolving.  Denser servers have accompanied shorter cabling spans to their access switches, and with that, an increase in switch-to-switch cable lengths for the channels that carry the aggregated traffic.  Whether 10G server access channels remain dominated by very short twinax copper or migrate to longer reach UTP as 10GBASE-T becomes lower in power consumption remains to be seen, but I think it is clear that there will be a higher percentage of closer access switch placement topologies like ToR, MoR, and EoR than in the past, basically because there are more servers in close proximity to each other.  So far these topologies have driven an overall increase in the switch-to-switch reach requirements. 

 

One of the other trends is the advent of the cloud.  This is somewhat synonymous with data center hosting where the internet services for many customers are housed in larger and larger data centers.  This is supported by the observation that mega data centers only came into existence in the past 5 years or so.  These are the primary locations where traffic demand is so high that 100G services are essential. 

 

You also bring up the “containerized” data center, the growing trend where pods are built in trailer-sized containers and added as demand necessitates.  If your assertion that smaller volume means more energy efficiency, these pods may have that advantage too.  Yet it is not clear to me how they impact reach requirements. For example, these pods are delivered by truck, so for the equivalent of a large data center the container “parking lot” would require truck-sized access aisles that must co-exist with cabling pathways.  Such ingress and egress requirements may increase reach requirements even though the containers are relatively small compared to a big building.  

 

All this leaves me with the view that pre-term cabling data are likely the best means of assessing channel length distributions and their trends.  Please realize that the data I presented included that from 2010, a year when the shorter reach limitations of 40GE and 100GE would have been known.  Despite the fact that the reach shrunk from 300 m for 10GE to 100 – 150 m for 40/100GE, the channel length distribution got longer compared to 2005 data.  Because of this I can’t simply agree that if we reduce the reach again that it will drive acceptable data center design changes, because the data is telling me that channel lengths longer than 100 m are common.  So while I agree that a 100 m reach satisfies the large majority of channel needs (because the pre-term data analysis supports that view), we cannot determine if that reach is optimal without knowing the cost of solutions that will be required to satisfy the longer channels, for it is only in the context of the total solution set where total cost of ownership can be determined. 

 

I also agree that this analysis should attempt to include not only the initial hardware cost, but the operational costs associated with power consumption.  However, this operational cost aspect is drawn out over long periods of time, so it cannot be simply added to the initial cost.  So strictly speaking the complication of the time-value of money comes into play.  But as a first pass, without time-value factored in, it may be the case that an extra couple Watts per port is not that significant, even if summed over a long period.  For example, if the difference between a 100 m and 200 m optic is 2W, then doubling that for voltage conversion inefficiency and cooling, this results in 4W extra total power consumption per port.  Over the course of a year this works out to: 365 days x 24 h/day x 0.004 kW = 35 kW-hours.  At $0.12/kWh this translates into $4.20 more per year for electricity.  Compare $4 in extra opex/year to the difference in the initial capex between a 100 m MM optic and the alternative SM optic and you may quickly determine that the 200 m MM alternative is far lower in total cost of ownership.  How all this fits together cannot be determined until the costs of the MM and SM alternatives are known.  That’s why we need to apply the Solution Set Analyzer.  Until we run through that analysis, setting a reach objective is just guesswork. 

 

Lastly, you mentioned using FEC as a reach booster.  FEC does provide additional reach for SM solutions because it translates into more power budget by allowing the receiver to operate below sensitivity or with noisier signals because FEC patches up errors caused by noise.  However FECs efficacy for MM optics that are constrained not by noise but by slow VCSELs and detectors and chromatic dispersion is really questionable.  These are not noise impairments that occasionally cause an error, but rather distortion impairments that insert structural pulse shape problems affecting many bit patterns.  Such distortions can swamp FEC capability and are much better compensated by equalization techniques that are designed to tackle distortion problems rather than noise.

 

So I agree that we should not get hung up on the DC size distribution data, but we should follow thru with our present course of analysis before setting objectives.

 

Regards,

Paul

 


From: Dan Dove [mailto:dan.dove@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Monday, December 12, 2011 1:28 PM
To: STDS-802-3-100GNGOPTX@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: [802.3_100GNGOPTX] Emerging new reach space (RESEND)

 

For some reason, this message is not going to the reflector, and I am not receiving messages at my APM address.

 

Date: Thu, 08 Dec 2011 12:56:45 -0800
To: 100G Group <STDS-802-3-100GNGOPTX@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: [802.3_100GNGOPTX] Emerging new reach space

Hi all;

I wonder if we are spending our time on the wrong question, ie; "What is the current distribution of fiber in data centers?"

Its useful to see where fiber is being installed at 10G and to understand the reaches various applications have used, however, it seems to me that a few key  principles are going to drive the future installations and reach requirements. To an extent, what we produce will be a driving force rather than a response to the market.

Principles;

Data Centers are extremely sensitive to energy consumption and Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) factors related to it.
Energy consumption requires thermal management, and efficiency is a function of Data Center volume which a number of papers have cited are inversely proportional. This is driving toward higher density, smaller geometry clusters.
Initial investment in IT equipment itself is based on performance demands and thus likely to be an independent (or loosely dependent) variable from reach.
Not to be simplistic, but this leads me to the euphemism "Build it, and they will come".

More specifically, if we find that X meters of MMF is what we can support without exceeding a bend in the cost curve, as long as X is reasonable and usable, people will figure out how to optimize around it.

Between papers on "containerized data centers" and "energy efficient warehouse scale data centers" I see a trend growing. Relatively small clusters of racks which contain Top of Rack (TOR) or Middle of Rack (MOR) switches that tie servers together using very short (most likely copper) links. These switches are then tied together with a fiber-run (probably two) to a cluster switch. The total geometry of this cluster wants to be small because air-flow defines the thermal efficiency. A large, spread out cluster requires a lot of air to cool it. The thermal performance is based on velocity, thus a smaller, faster air column is going to work better than a big, slow one.

Even for massive data centers, they are likely to segregate the air columns, and maintain smaller clusters that are tied together with floor switches or meshes.

This all means that the future distribution of fiber may look very different from what historically has been the case. The size of the clusters will be based upon energy efficiency and thermal management more than the reach of the fiber within the cluster. The distance between cluster switches *may* be supportable by MMF, and a 100m reach allows for a pretty significant sized building to be supported before you have to even consider SMF as a link between them.

Below  is an example of a 150,000 square foot data center layout.




With today's server technology, the number of servers in such a building can start to challenge other design limits than cable reach. Power distribution, thermal management, ingress/egress data capacity become a bigger challenge than the distance between switches.

I am only saying this to question if we are beating ourselves up over a non-issue. If we can get 100m of reach as Jonathan King's presentation in November stated, I think we are going to satisfy everything from a 150,000 sq ft data center down. The only question that might remain, and its more of a Task Force question, is whether we need two PMDs (one for cluster links, one for floor links) and this depends on the cost delta between a 40m reach and 100m reach. As Jonathan points out, the difference could be achieved simply by enabling/disabling FEC with a common PMD.

Personally, I am ready to support a 100m objective and believe that we can show technical feasibility and market potential based on available information.

Some more work on economic feasibility would be appreciated, and additional supporting presentations on MP and TF would be helpful, but we are very close if we can simply conclude that 100m is a reasonable target without getting bogged down on inconsistencies between sources of historical data.

Dan