RE: 3PMD Proposal is not enough
Jonathan,
Customers are installing next generation MMF for 0 - 300 meter backbone
applications, to run 1000BASE-SX and /or lower speed LED based applications
today, and 10 Gbps 850 nm applications up to 300 meters in the future. If
they only wanted more distance or lower error rates at Gigabit speeds, they
could pull standard 500/500 MHz-km 50 micron, which can support 1000BASE-SX
to 550 meters.
The key is that the end customers want one fiber path running all
applications, the lowest total system cost, and they do not want to pull
singlemode since it requires expensive 1000BASE-LX modules and can not run
the legacy LED applications that most customers must support.
Regards,
John George
Lucent Technologies
770-798-2432 (Voice)
770-798-3653 (Fax)
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Jonathan Thatcher [SMTP:Jonathan.Thatcher@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> Sent: Friday, June 23, 2000 7:22 PM
> To: 'stds-802-3-hssg@xxxxxxxx'
> Subject: RE: 3PMD Proposal is not enough
>
>
> John,
>
> This is great information. Thank you.
>
> What assumptions are used? What are the motivations for customer choice
> of
> the new MMF?
>
> 1. Are they doing this to get greater distance at gigabit speeds?
> 2. Are they doing this to improve error rates at gigabit speeds?
> 3. Are they doing this because the new MMF is less expensive than existing
> MMF?
> 4. Are they doing this because they expect P802.3ae to adopt an 850 nm
> solution?
> 5. Other rationale?
>
> jonathan
>
> >-----Original Message-----
> >From: George, John Emanuel (John) [mailto:johngeorge@xxxxxxxxxx]
> >Sent: Thursday, June 22, 2000 2:21 PM
> >To: 'stds-802-3-hssg@xxxxxxxx'
> >Subject: RE: 3PMD Proposal is not enough
> >
> >
> >
> >The previous message had tables that may not have been readable. This
> >version is re-formatted.
> >
> >Regards,
> >
> >John George
> >Lucent Technologies
> >770-798-2432 (Voice)
> >770-798-3653 (Fax)
> >
> >> -----Original Message-----
> >> From: George, John Emanuel (John)
> >> Sent: Tuesday, June 20, 2000 5:58 PM
> >> To: 'stds-802-3-hssg@xxxxxxxx'
> >> Subject: RE: 3PMD Proposal is not enough
> >>
> >> Howard,
> >>
> >> Good question.
> >>
> >> The short answer is that there will be more than enough
> >installed next
> >> generation fiber to support the approximately 2 million Ten Gigabit
> >> Ethernet Ports that Bruce Tolley projected will ship through 2004.
> >>
> >(http://grouper.ieee.org/groups/802/3/ae/public/may00/tolley_1_
> >0500.pdf).
> >>
> >
> >Global MM Shipments (KMI view)
> >2001 4,316
> >2002 4,998
> >2003 5,795
> >2004 6,522
> >
> >% Next Gen MM of total KMI projection
> >2001 10%
> >2002 25%
> >2003 35%
> >2004 50%
> >
> >Next Gen MM FMM (Fiber Mega Meters) annual installation
> >
> >2001 432
> >2002 1,250
> >2003 2,028
> >2004 3,261
> >TOTAL 6,971
> >
> >Cumulative 10G ports supported by next generation MM, 0 - 300m
> >
> >(See assumptions below)
> >
> >2001 650,549
> >2002 2,488,049
> >2003 5,470,769
> >2004 10,266,357
> >
> >Bruce Tolley (Cisco) Projection for Total 10 G Ethernet Ports
> >(Bruce, I estimated these from your logarithmic chart, and
> >apologize for any
> >inaccuracies in my reading the datapoints)
> >
> >2001 10,000
> >2002 200,000
> >2003 800,000
> >2004 2,000,000
> >
> >>
> >> We estimate that between now and 2004 the installed quantity of next
> >> generation multimode fiber will reach 7,000 FMM (fiber mega
> >meters). The
> >> vast majority of the next generation fiber will be installed
> >in buildings
> >> in links up to 300 meters. Assuming an average length of 170
> >meters for
> >> <300 meter links (based on the 7/96 IEEE survey), and
> >assuming only 25% of
> >> the fiber is lit, next generation multimode will be able to
> >support over
> >> 10 million 10 Gigabit Ethernet Ports by 2004. Even assuming
> >that we ship
> >> only half of the projected next generation multimode, a
> >conservative view,
> >> we will be able to support 5 million ports.
> >>
> >> Bottom line: There will be more than enough installed next generation
> >> multimode fiber to support 10 Gigabit Ethernet at 850 nm from 0 - 300
> >> meters.
> >>
> >> On the installed base question in general, the global
> >installed base of
> >> all multimode by 2004 will be about 35,000 FMM. As of the 1996 IEEE
> >> survey, only 20% of the installed FMM was in links up to 300
> >meters since
> >> most of the fiber was in the campus and building. By 2004,
> >we can assume
> >> the installed base up to 300 meters will grow to 40% of the
> >total as fiber
> >> grabs additional share of building backbones and FTTD grows.
> >>
> >> Thus, the installed base in links up to 300 meters will be
> >14,000 FMM (40%
> >> of 35,000) by 2004, and next generation fiber will comprise
> >7,000 FMM, or
> >> 50% of the installed base up to 300 meters.
> >>
> >>
> >> Regards,
> >>
> >> John George
> >> Lucent Technologies
> >> 770-798-2432 (Voice)
> >> 770-798-3653 (Fax)
> >>
> >> -----Original Message-----
> >> From: Howard Frazier [SMTP:hfrazier@xxxxxxxxx]
> >> Sent: Wednesday, June 14, 2000 9:09 PM
> >> To: stds-802-3-hssg@xxxxxxxx
> >> Subject: RE: 3PMD Proposal
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >> John,
> >>
> >> Can you provide some numbers to substantiate
> >this assertion:
> >>
> >>
> >> >Please note that pulling new fiber is a small
> >fraction of
> >> the total system
> >> >cost. Customers have already been installing the new
> >> multimode that will be
> >> >used today for 1000BASE-SX, and can be upgraded to
> >> 10000BASE-850nm in the
> >> >future. The bulk of 10 GBE port sales will occur after
> >> 2002. By that time,
> >> >there will be a significant and growing
> >installed base of
> >> the new multimode
> >> >fiber.
> >>
> >> What constitutes "a significant and growing
> >installed base
> >> of the new
> >> multi-mode fiber?"
> >>
> >> Can you show us a timeline, going out for the next five
> >> years, with
> >> your projections of the percentage penetration
> >for the new
> >> fiber in
> >> both the horizontal and backbone applications?
> >>
> >> Howard Frazier
> >> Cisco Systems, Inc.
> >