| Hello Chris,
Looking at Mr. Stone presentation regarding future Facebook deployment as well as 100GbE/400GbE ramp my predication is as following: - 1st million real* 800 GbE port shipment 2026 - 1st million real* 1600 GbE port shipment 2030
* The switch MAC is enabled for 800 GbE/1600 GbE operation.
Thanks,
Ali Ghiasi Ghiasi Quantum LLC
Hi Ali All very important points.
Given this insight, what is your prediction for the year in which the 1st million 800GbE and 1st million 1.6TbE optical ports will ship?
Chris
Hello Chris, With availability of QSFP-DD800/OSFP and 802.3ck 100G/lane coupled with Ethernet Technology Consortium (ETC) 800G MAC the cost of providing 800 GbE practically speaking is free, but we all know the primary applications are 100/200/400 GbE breakouts. As long the plumbing exist for 1600 GbE and adding 1600 GbE MAC/PCS/FEC is about free then 51.2 Tb switches may include 1600 GbE MAC where the real usage will be 200/400/800 GbE. In my opinion we are facing some serious headwinds: - the pluming for 1600 GbE may end up to be much more complex and costly - some of the proposed FEC implementations see Mr. Xinyuan Wang ( https://www.ieee802.org/3/B400G/public/21_02/wang_b400g_01_210208.pdf [ieee802.org] ) could make it too costly for an ASIC implementing x256 or x512 lanes to incorporate and 1600 GbE end-end FEC These in effect likely will push out 1600 GbE availability and may not be included on 51.2Tb switches due to cost premium until there exist real 1600 GbE applications.
Dear >400GbE Study Group Participants, We ran out of time during my presentation slot to give everyone an opportunity to ask questions and make comments.
Cedric Lam had an important projection to share, which is that 800G duplex fiber modules will ship in 2022.
In his presentation, Ali Ghiasi pointed out that 800GbE standards work started in the Ethernet Technology Consortium (ETC) before the start of the >400GbE SG. Brad Booth, ETC Chair, and Rob Stone, ETC Technical WG Chair, informed me that this started in 2019. So my predictions are crumbling before the ink is dry on the presentation, and the 800GbE table entries need the below update. 1st 802.3 Project | designation | | >400GbE | | >400GbE | GbE Rate | | 800 | | 800 | work start | | 2021 | | 2019 | published | | 2025 | <image001.png> | 2025 | 1st shipment | year | | 2023/24 | | 2022 | type | | LR8 | | “LR8” | wavelength | | 8x100 | | 8x100 | I/O | | 8x100 | | 8x100 | form factor | | OSFP | QSFP-DD | | OSFP | | | | | | | |
As Brad cautioned us on the call, and Cedric did similarly after the call, predictions based on the past should be taken with a grain of salt as new trends and dependencies are rapidly developing. I will redouble my efforts and more carefully study the crystal color energy wheel to find a more reliable color. All meeting material for the 22 March meeting of the Mar 2021 Study Group Session have been uploaded - Chair, IEEE 802.3 Beyond 400 Gb/s Ethernet Study Group
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