[802.3_NGECDC] Tuesday, Jan. 21 NEA Ad Hoc discussion

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Subject: [802.3_NGECDC] Tuesday, Jan. 21 NEA Ad Hoc discussion

From: Chris Cole <chris.cole@xxxxxxxxxxx>

Date: Fri, 17 Jan 2020 23:13:11 +0000

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Reply-to: Chris Cole <chris.cole@xxxxxxxxxxx>

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Thread-topic: Tuesday, Jan. 21 NEA Ad Hoc discussion

Dear NEA Ad Hoc Colleagues,

Mark Twain popularized the following quote: “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”

We have a wonderful example of the third category:

http://www.ieee802.org/3/ad_hoc/ngrates/public/20_01/dambrosia_nea_01_0120.pdf#page=11

Here is the content of page 12 from April 2019 LightCounting High-Speed Ethernet Optics Report, that I have used before with their permission.

The Big Four Plans - 2019

AWS: 400G-DR4 broken out to four 100G-DR

Google: Shifting from 100G to 200G in the form of 2x200G modules. 2x400G will be their next step.

Facebook: New high-density 100G switch fabric for 4X capacity. Next step 200G.

Microsoft : Will deploy 400G inside data centers after 400ZR available to interconnect those regional data centers

No clear plans to deploy true 400GbE for some time!

Recognizing that the Dell’Oro statistic likely counts aggregate module or socket bandwidth, even the notion that 1 million of such misleadingly defined 400G ports will cumulatively ship by the end of 2020 is a stretch.

Further, the total bandwidth of a small metal box( transceiver) or front panel hole in line card should not be comparted to MAC rates.

Thank you

Chris

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