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The key words are "starting 5 to 8 years from now." Given
likely adoption rates (and previous history with 10GE shows that this takes
longer than any of us anticipate), I believe my point stands. -----Original Message----- Key architects from the three major server manufacturers (SUN, IBM, HP) have stated that servers will need 100GE ports starting 5 to 8 years from now (see page 3 of my Broad Market Potential presentation from the March HSSG meeting, and Muller's presentation from the January HSSG meeting.) It is diificult to see how starting to develop technology
that will migrate into this market can be characterized as departing from reality. -----Original Message----- From: OJHA,JUGNU [mailto:jugnu.ojha@AVAGOTECH.COM] Sent: Friday, April 06, 2007 1:32 PM To: STDS-802-3-HSSG@listserv.ieee.org Subject: Re: [HSSG] 40G MAC Rate Discussion Matt, to address your point about BMP for 40G, I can't help but think
it ironic when even the strongest proponents of 100G say that they do not see a market for more than 100's to 1000's of links in the next 5+ years. We departed from reality long ago.... -----Original Message----- From: Matt Traverso [mailto:matt.traverso@GMAIL.COM] Sent: Friday, April 06, 2007 10:27 AM To: STDS-802-3-HSSG@listserv.ieee.org Subject: Re: [HSSG] 40G MAC Rate Discussion I'd like to comment from an optical component / module vendor point of view. Personally I'm not convinced that broad market potential has been demonstrated, but... Operating under the assumption that the 40GbE broad market potential is verified with end user input: - As we heard/saw in Jack Jewel's presentation focused on the cost
& reliability of the MMF objective, extending from a 1x10G VCSEL to a 10x10G VCSEL does not represent a linear cost increase -- similarly a 4x10G would only be an incremental increase - The dominant cost in a nx10G MMF interface is likely to be any premium charged for the interface IC as well as costs associated with the development quad laser drivers & quad amplifiers (or deka
drivers & amps) - I'd like to hear a comment / perspective from the fiber manufacturers on the utilization rate of the ribbon fiber strands. For a 4x10G MMF approach presumably 8 strands in the 12 ribbon would be used 4 for TX and 4 for RX. For a 10x10G MMF approach it would be 2 @12 with 10 @ Tx and 10 @ RX. What does this do to the cost and usage rate metrics of MMF cabling? - Would an SMF PMD objective at 40GbE have broad market potential (BMP)? Here I am very skeptical - Assuming that BMP was shown for an SMF PMD objective, I would advocate a 2km serial 40Gbit/s scheme rather than a 4 lambda approach as the transmission problems are not as severe - This would represent the path that reuses the most technology and allows for a compact & low power dissipation end solution - As I have stated one of the primary impediments is the availability of a low power interface IC -- this is the primary obstacle for OC768 (40G SONET/SDH) modules - A 4 lambda x 10G at single mode would not simply be able to plug in the work done on 802.3ae as the technical challenge of MUX/DMUX optical loss and packaging would require a new round of investment In closing I'd like to see some supporting data for the Broad Market Potential of 40GbE (including distance / media usage comments/assumptions) that reflects the timeframe of standard development -- eg. demand/need in 2009-2012. thanks, --matt traverso mtraverso@opnext.com NOTE: This e-mail is being sent from my personal e-mail account rather than my corporate e-mail address at Opnext due to default signature files embedded in my Opnext e-mail account. |