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RE: 3PMD Proposal is not enough




The previous message had tables that may not have been readable. This
version is re-formatted.

Regards,

John George
Lucent Technologies
770-798-2432 (Voice)
770-798-3653 (Fax)

> -----Original Message-----
> From:	George, John Emanuel (John) 
> Sent:	Tuesday, June 20, 2000 5:58 PM
> To:	'stds-802-3-hssg@xxxxxxxx'
> Subject:	RE: 3PMD Proposal is not enough
> 
> Howard,
> 			
> Good question. 
> 
> The short answer is that there will be more than enough installed next
> generation fiber to support the approximately 2 million Ten Gigabit
> Ethernet Ports that Bruce Tolley projected will ship through 2004.
> (http://grouper.ieee.org/groups/802/3/ae/public/may00/tolley_1_0500.pdf).
> 
	
Global MM Shipments (KMI view)  	
2001   4,316          
2002   4,998   
2003   5,795
2004   6,522 

% Next Gen MM of total KMI projection
2001   10%
2002   25%   
2003   35%
2004   50%

Next Gen MM FMM (Fiber Mega Meters) annual installation
 
2001       432
2002    1,250
2003    2,028
2004    3,261
TOTAL 6,971

Cumulative 10G ports supported by next generation MM, 0 - 300m

(See assumptions below)

2001       650,549 
2002    2,488,049       
2003    5,470,769
2004  10,266,357

Bruce Tolley (Cisco) Projection for Total 10 G Ethernet Ports 
(Bruce, I estimated these from your logarithmic chart, and apologize for any
inaccuracies in my reading the datapoints)

2001        10,000
2002      200,000
2003      800,000
2004   2,000,000

>  
> We estimate that between now and 2004 the installed quantity of next
> generation multimode fiber will reach 7,000 FMM (fiber mega meters). The
> vast majority of the next generation fiber will be installed in buildings
> in links up to 300 meters. Assuming an average length of 170 meters for
> <300 meter links (based on the 7/96 IEEE survey), and assuming only 25% of
> the fiber is lit, next generation multimode will be able to support over
> 10 million 10 Gigabit Ethernet Ports by 2004. Even assuming that we ship
> only half of the projected next generation multimode, a conservative view,
> we will be able to support 5 million ports.    
> 
> Bottom line: There will be more than enough installed next generation
> multimode fiber to support 10 Gigabit Ethernet at 850 nm from 0 - 300
> meters.   
> 
> On the installed base question in general, the global installed base of
> all multimode by 2004 will be about 35,000 FMM. As of the 1996 IEEE
> survey, only 20% of the installed FMM was in links up to 300 meters since
> most of the fiber was in the campus and building.  By 2004, we can assume
> the installed base up to 300 meters will grow to 40% of the total as fiber
> grabs additional share of building backbones and FTTD grows. 
> 
> Thus, the installed base in links up to 300 meters will be 14,000 FMM (40%
> of 35,000) by 2004, and next generation fiber will comprise 7,000 FMM, or
> 50% of the installed base up to 300 meters. 
> 
> 
> Regards,
> 
> John George
> Lucent Technologies
> 770-798-2432 (Voice)
> 770-798-3653 (Fax)
> 
> -----Original Message-----
> From:	Howard Frazier [SMTP:hfrazier@xxxxxxxxx]
> Sent:	Wednesday, June 14, 2000 9:09 PM
> To:	stds-802-3-hssg@xxxxxxxx
> Subject:	RE: 3PMD Proposal
> 
> 
> 
> 		John,
> 
> 		Can you provide some numbers to substantiate this assertion:
> 
> 
> 		>Please note that pulling new fiber is a small fraction of
> the total system
> 		>cost. Customers have already been installing the new
> multimode that will be
> 		>used today for 1000BASE-SX, and can be upgraded to
> 10000BASE-850nm in the
> 		>future. The bulk of 10 GBE port sales will occur after
> 2002. By that time,
> 		>there will be a significant and growing installed base of
> the new multimode
> 		>fiber.  
> 
> 		What constitutes "a significant and growing installed base
> of the new
> 		multi-mode fiber?"
> 
> 		Can you show us a timeline, going out for the next five
> years, with
> 		your projections of the percentage penetration for the new
> fiber in 
> 		both the horizontal and backbone applications?
> 
> 		Howard Frazier
> 		Cisco Systems, Inc.