Re: 3PMD Proposal is not enough
John,
We need to be careful here. We are assuming that the customers buy into
the added performance of the new 50 micron fiber. In the US market they
may not. They may tend to stick with the 62 micron since they are
comfortable with it and not having any problems. There are penalties in
going to the 50 micron.
Gair
"George, John Emanuel (John)" wrote:
>
> > Howard,
> >
> > Good question.
> >
> > The short answer is that there will be more than enough installed next
> > generation fiber to support the approximately 2 million Ten Gigabit
> > Ethernet Ports that Bruce Tolley projected will ship through 2004.
> > (http://grouper.ieee.org/groups/802/3/ae/public/may00/tolley_1_0500.pdf).
> >
> >
> 2001 2002 2003 2004
> Global MM Shipments (KMI view) 4,316 4,998 5,795
> 6,522
> % Next Gen MM 10% 25% 35% 50%
> Next Gen MM (FMM) 432 1,250
> 2,028 3,261
> (Fiber Mega Meters)
>
> > Cumulative 10G ports supported 650,549 2,488,049 5,470,769
> > 10,266,357
> > by next generation MM, 0 - 300m
> >
> > Bruce Tolley Projection for 10,000 200,000 800,000
> > 2,000,000
> > Total 10 G Ethernet Ports
> > (Bruce, I estimated these from your logarithmic chart, and apologize for
> > any inaccuracies in my reading the datapoints)
> >
> > We estimate that between now and 2004 the installed quantity of next
> > generation multimode fiber will reach 7,000 FMM (fiber mega meters). The
> > vast majority of the next generation fiber will be installed in buildings
> > in links up to 300 meters. Assuming an average length of 170 meters for
> > <300 meter links (based on the 7/96 IEEE survey), and assuming only 25% of
> > the fiber is lit, next generation multimode will be able to support over
> > 10 million 10 Gigabit Ethernet Ports by 2004. Even assuming that we ship
> > only half of the projected next generation multimode, a conservative view,
> > we will be able to support 5 million ports.
> >
> > Bottom line: There will be more than enough installed next generation
> > multimode fiber to support 10 Gigabit Ethernet at 850 nm from 0 - 300
> > meters.
> >
> > On the installed base question in general, the global installed base of
> > all multimode by 2004 will be about 35,000 FMM. As of the 1996 IEEE
> > survey, only 20% of the installed FMM was in links up to 300 meters since
> > most of the fiber was in the campus and building. By 2004, we can assume
> > the installed base up to 300 meters will grow to 40% of the total as fiber
> > grabs additional share of building backbones and FTTD grows.
> >
> > Thus, the installed base in links up to 300 meters will be 14,000 FMM (40%
> > of 35,000) by 2004, and next generation fiber will comprise 7,000 FMM, or
> > 50% of the installed base up to 300 meters.
> >
> >
> > Regards,
> >
> > John George
> > Lucent Technologies
> > 770-798-2432 (Voice)
> > 770-798-3653 (Fax)
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: Howard Frazier [SMTP:hfrazier@xxxxxxxxx]
> > Sent: Wednesday, June 14, 2000 9:09 PM
> > To: stds-802-3-hssg@xxxxxxxx
> > Subject: RE: 3PMD Proposal
> >
> >
> >
> > John,
> >
> > Can you provide some numbers to substantiate this assertion:
> >
> >
> > >Please note that pulling new fiber is a small fraction of the total
> > system
> > >cost. Customers have already been installing the new multimode that
> > will be
> > >used today for 1000BASE-SX, and can be upgraded to 10000BASE-850nm
> > in the
> > >future. The bulk of 10 GBE port sales will occur after 2002. By
> > that time,
> > >there will be a significant and growing installed base of the new
> > multimode
> > >fiber.
> >
> > What constitutes "a significant and growing installed base of the
> > new
> > multi-mode fiber?"
> >
> > Can you show us a timeline, going out for the next five years, with
> > your projections of the percentage penetration for the new fiber in
> > both the horizontal and backbone applications?
> >
> > Howard Frazier
> > Cisco Systems, Inc.
--
Naval Surface Warfare Center
browngd@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Code B35 PH: 540-653-1579
17320 Dahlgren Road FAX: 540-653-8673
Building 1500 Room 110A
Dahlgren, VA 22448-5100