RE: 3PMD Proposal is not enough
> Howard,
>
> Good question.
>
> The short answer is that there will be more than enough installed next
> generation fiber to support the approximately 2 million Ten Gigabit
> Ethernet Ports that Bruce Tolley projected will ship through 2004.
> (http://grouper.ieee.org/groups/802/3/ae/public/may00/tolley_1_0500.pdf).
>
>
2001 2002 2003 2004
Global MM Shipments (KMI view) 4,316 4,998 5,795
6,522
% Next Gen MM 10% 25% 35% 50%
Next Gen MM (FMM) 432 1,250
2,028 3,261
(Fiber Mega Meters)
> Cumulative 10G ports supported 650,549 2,488,049 5,470,769
> 10,266,357
> by next generation MM, 0 - 300m
>
> Bruce Tolley Projection for 10,000 200,000 800,000
> 2,000,000
> Total 10 G Ethernet Ports
> (Bruce, I estimated these from your logarithmic chart, and apologize for
> any inaccuracies in my reading the datapoints)
>
> We estimate that between now and 2004 the installed quantity of next
> generation multimode fiber will reach 7,000 FMM (fiber mega meters). The
> vast majority of the next generation fiber will be installed in buildings
> in links up to 300 meters. Assuming an average length of 170 meters for
> <300 meter links (based on the 7/96 IEEE survey), and assuming only 25% of
> the fiber is lit, next generation multimode will be able to support over
> 10 million 10 Gigabit Ethernet Ports by 2004. Even assuming that we ship
> only half of the projected next generation multimode, a conservative view,
> we will be able to support 5 million ports.
>
> Bottom line: There will be more than enough installed next generation
> multimode fiber to support 10 Gigabit Ethernet at 850 nm from 0 - 300
> meters.
>
> On the installed base question in general, the global installed base of
> all multimode by 2004 will be about 35,000 FMM. As of the 1996 IEEE
> survey, only 20% of the installed FMM was in links up to 300 meters since
> most of the fiber was in the campus and building. By 2004, we can assume
> the installed base up to 300 meters will grow to 40% of the total as fiber
> grabs additional share of building backbones and FTTD grows.
>
> Thus, the installed base in links up to 300 meters will be 14,000 FMM (40%
> of 35,000) by 2004, and next generation fiber will comprise 7,000 FMM, or
> 50% of the installed base up to 300 meters.
>
>
> Regards,
>
> John George
> Lucent Technologies
> 770-798-2432 (Voice)
> 770-798-3653 (Fax)
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Howard Frazier [SMTP:hfrazier@xxxxxxxxx]
> Sent: Wednesday, June 14, 2000 9:09 PM
> To: stds-802-3-hssg@xxxxxxxx
> Subject: RE: 3PMD Proposal
>
>
>
> John,
>
> Can you provide some numbers to substantiate this assertion:
>
>
> >Please note that pulling new fiber is a small fraction of the total
> system
> >cost. Customers have already been installing the new multimode that
> will be
> >used today for 1000BASE-SX, and can be upgraded to 10000BASE-850nm
> in the
> >future. The bulk of 10 GBE port sales will occur after 2002. By
> that time,
> >there will be a significant and growing installed base of the new
> multimode
> >fiber.
>
> What constitutes "a significant and growing installed base of the
> new
> multi-mode fiber?"
>
> Can you show us a timeline, going out for the next five years, with
> your projections of the percentage penetration for the new fiber in
> both the horizontal and backbone applications?
>
> Howard Frazier
> Cisco Systems, Inc.