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RE: 3PMD Proposal is not enough




> Howard,
> 			
> Good question. 
> 
> The short answer is that there will be more than enough installed next
> generation fiber to support the approximately 2 million Ten Gigabit
> Ethernet Ports that Bruce Tolley projected will ship through 2004.
> (http://grouper.ieee.org/groups/802/3/ae/public/may00/tolley_1_0500.pdf).
> 
> 
	2001	2002	2003 	2004
Global MM Shipments (KMI view)   4,316          4,998         	5,795
6,522 
% Next Gen MM	  10%	25%	35%	50%
Next Gen MM (FMM) 	            432 	         1,250
2,028          3,261 
(Fiber Mega Meters)
 
> Cumulative 10G ports supported    650,549       2,488,049       5,470,769
> 10,266,357 	
> by next generation MM, 0 - 300m    		 
> 
> Bruce Tolley Projection for	   10,000	200,000	         800,000
> 2,000,000
> Total 10 G Ethernet Ports
> (Bruce, I estimated these from your logarithmic chart, and apologize for
> any inaccuracies in my reading the datapoints)
> 
> We estimate that between now and 2004 the installed quantity of next
> generation multimode fiber will reach 7,000 FMM (fiber mega meters). The
> vast majority of the next generation fiber will be installed in buildings
> in links up to 300 meters. Assuming an average length of 170 meters for
> <300 meter links (based on the 7/96 IEEE survey), and assuming only 25% of
> the fiber is lit, next generation multimode will be able to support over
> 10 million 10 Gigabit Ethernet Ports by 2004. Even assuming that we ship
> only half of the projected next generation multimode, a conservative view,
> we will be able to support 5 million ports.    
> 
> Bottom line: There will be more than enough installed next generation
> multimode fiber to support 10 Gigabit Ethernet at 850 nm from 0 - 300
> meters.   
> 
> On the installed base question in general, the global installed base of
> all multimode by 2004 will be about 35,000 FMM. As of the 1996 IEEE
> survey, only 20% of the installed FMM was in links up to 300 meters since
> most of the fiber was in the campus and building.  By 2004, we can assume
> the installed base up to 300 meters will grow to 40% of the total as fiber
> grabs additional share of building backbones and FTTD grows. 
> 
> Thus, the installed base in links up to 300 meters will be 14,000 FMM (40%
> of 35,000) by 2004, and next generation fiber will comprise 7,000 FMM, or
> 50% of the installed base up to 300 meters. 
> 
> 
> Regards,
> 
> John George
> Lucent Technologies
> 770-798-2432 (Voice)
> 770-798-3653 (Fax)
> 
> -----Original Message-----
> From:	Howard Frazier [SMTP:hfrazier@xxxxxxxxx]
> Sent:	Wednesday, June 14, 2000 9:09 PM
> To:	stds-802-3-hssg@xxxxxxxx
> Subject:	RE: 3PMD Proposal
> 
> 
> 
> 	John,
> 
> 	Can you provide some numbers to substantiate this assertion:
> 
> 
> 	>Please note that pulling new fiber is a small fraction of the total
> system
> 	>cost. Customers have already been installing the new multimode that
> will be
> 	>used today for 1000BASE-SX, and can be upgraded to 10000BASE-850nm
> in the
> 	>future. The bulk of 10 GBE port sales will occur after 2002. By
> that time,
> 	>there will be a significant and growing installed base of the new
> multimode
> 	>fiber.  
> 
> 	What constitutes "a significant and growing installed base of the
> new
> 	multi-mode fiber?"
> 
> 	Can you show us a timeline, going out for the next five years, with
> 	your projections of the percentage penetration for the new fiber in 
> 	both the horizontal and backbone applications?
> 
> 	Howard Frazier
> 	Cisco Systems, Inc.