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Re: [802.3_NGECDC] Material Uploaded



Hi Steve,

 

There is nothing profound about these two particular milestones.

 

Another interesting set is delta in years between when the standard was published and 1st 1K unit shipment.

 

Rate

GbE

IEEE standard released

year

1st 1K units shipped

year

Delta

years

10

2002

2003

1

40

2010

2011

1

100

2010

2011

1

400

2017

2020

3

 

Chris

 

From: Swanson, Steven E <SwansonSE@xxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, November 12, 2019 3:51 PM
To: Chris Cole <chris.cole@xxxxxxxxxxx>; STDS-802-3-NGECDC@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [EXTERNAL]: RE: [802.3_NGECDC] Material Uploaded

 

Chris,

 

Thanks for this; I think this is the point I was trying to make during the BWA meeting last night. I am not sure what it means that the time between IEEE starting work and the 1st million units shipping is increasing but it is a metric we should consider.

 

While I fully support working on higher speed standards, I am concerned that our standards are getting further and further ahead of our technology as we ramp up speeds. I guess it is better to be early than late but in my opinion the multitude of simultaneous projects spreads our resources thin, makes it more difficult to justify the resources needed to develop good solutions and increases the risk of picking a non-optimal solution.

 

Steve

 

Steven E. Swanson

Senior Standards Manager

Distinguished Associate

 

Global Technology & Industry Standards

MT&E

Corning Optical Communications

4200 Corning Place

Charlotte, NC 28216

 

t   828-901-5328

t   607-974-5757

m 607-725-1129

 

swansonse@xxxxxxxxxxx

 

Standards are a bridge between markets and technologies; whoever controls the bridge controls the future…

 

From: Chris Cole <chris.cole@xxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, November 12, 2019 3:20 AM
To: STDS-802-3-NGECDC@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: [802.3_NGECDC] Material Uploaded

 

Dear Industry Connections New Ethernet Applications Ad  Hoc Colleagues,

 

During this evening’s meeting, David Law asked me an excellent question about the meaning of 1st million units shipped of a given Ethernet optics speed. Since I was not allowed to finish my answer, I followed up with him off-line. However, others in attendance may also be interested in the full answer.

 

Let’s look at the data for 40GbE and 100GbE optics shipments as reported by LightCounting, and presented in 100 Gb/s per lane optical PHYs Study Group.

 

http://www.ieee802.org/3/100G_OPTX/public/Mar19/cole_optx_01c_0319.pdf#page=2

 

What the data shows is during the year that 1st million units ship, the shipments are on a steep exponential. Therefore the difference between cumulative 1st million and 1st million in a year is small; half a year to a year.

 

The time between IEEE starting work and 1st million units shipping is summarized below for several Ethernet rates.

 

Rate

GbE

IEEE work starts

year

1st million units ship

year

Delta

years

10

1999

2007

8

40

2007

2014

7

100

2006

2017

11

400

2013

2023 (prediction)

10

 

Chris

 


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