Re: [EFM] Banana networks
Hugh,
I think the analogy of the produce stand would be more appropriate, from a
service providers standpoint, if you were to make the produce align with
the services that are delivered, and then physical stand becomes the
delivery infrastructure, of which 802.3ah is a part. From a service
providers perspective, he has several stands in different parts of the town
that he wants to sell out of.
Just like any produce market, you have different kinds of produce,
vegetables like lettuce, fruit like bananas, and nuts like
peanuts. Sometimes the type of equipment in the stand dictates what kind
of produce he can sell, for example, vegetables like lettuce tend to do
better in refrigerated coolers than in the open heat, while nuts like
peanuts tend to like warm dry storage. Just like a real produce stand,
there are some items that people are willing to pay more for than they are
for other items. A single head of lettuce brings a lot more than a single
peanut. I am sure that every wife would love to pay the cost of a single
peanut for a head of lettuce, but they know it does not work that way even
though they complain to the grocer. The items that do not sell for as
much, must sell in higher quantity to be able to be economical, because
produce seller does make as much off of each one that he sells. A grocer
does not make as much off of a single peanut as he does a single head of
lettuce. Also, the owner of the produce stands needs to be able to supply
the produce that meets what the customers want to eat. Trying to change
the way the customers eat produce, often does not work. Trying to sell
tame "vege-burgers" to someone from the Southwest that is used to hot and
spicy meat, would not often work. Those of you with ethnic backgrounds
know what I mean. (I am including Texans like me that prefer beef steaks to
turkey.)
The produce stand owner needs to be sure that his stands can either sell
the produce that he makes more off of, or that the produce that he makes
less off of can have a higher quantity supply. Or he has to have stands
that will sell all kinds of produce.
This is where the equipment in the stand becomes very important. If the
produce stand owner simply buys a type of equipment for his stand tries to
sell whatever can be carried by that equipment, while someone else builds
stands with different equipment that will sell either the better produce,
or be able to deliver a higher quantity of the lessor produce, then the
original owner of the produce stands will have economic problems. This
makes it not only important for the makers of the produce stand equipment
to be aware of the issues, but also the owner of the produce stands needs
to pay closer attention to what the customers are buying so as to make sure
that he is building the right kind of produce stands.
In this analogy, 802.3ah becomes the equipment in the produce stand. The
different kinds of produce are different kinds of services. Just like
there are certain kinds of produce that people are willing to pay more for,
there are services that people are willing to pay more for. The services
that they are not willing to pay more for must be able to deliver at a
higher quantity than the higher cost services. 802.3ah in the different
media must be able to deliver either higher quality services, or high
quantity services. I am sure that the service providers would like to
migrate their customers to the higher quantity services, but many times
that does not work for customers that are used to the higher quality. It
is very difficult to change the way that people eat.
Thank you,
Roy Bynum
At 08:55 AM 12/9/2002 -0800, Hugh Barrass wrote:
>Sanjeev,
>
>Good to see that you've introduced perishable fruit into the discussion - more
>relevant than many people expect...
>
>If you have a fruit stand selling your bananas then you have a difficult
>problem
>to decide how many bananas to start each day with (for simplicity I will
>assume
>that you can choose to have your banana delivery each morning and also that
>bananas decompose at the end of each day). You may make a reasonable guess
>at how
>many you will sell on average, but you can't predict how many you will
>sell on a
>given day. So what should you do?
>
>You could err on the conservative side - only buy "enough" bananas so that
>on some
>days you have a few bananas left over, on other days you run out before
>closing
>time. This way you minimize the wastage. The downside is that on many days
>customers arrive and are disappointed. Those customers may look elsewhere for
>their bananas and discover the other fruit stand that doesn't run out - you've
>lost a regular customer that will reduce your average sales.
>
>Alternatively, you could over-provision. You buy more than the average
>number of
>bananas with a view to minimizing the number of days when customers are turned
>away. This will mean a larger wastage of bananas which can be weighed
>against the
>better overall sales figure. The advantage is that you are buying the bananas
>wholesale and selling them retail (plus tax).
>
>The Ethernet Solution
>==============
>
>Network provisioning is a similar problem. Bandwidth must be provisioned but
>cannot be carried over from one day to the next - it is the ultimate
>"perishable
>resource."
>
>Ethernet aims to make the bananas so cheap that the cost per banana can
>(almost)
>be ignored. You massively over-provision, you never need to turn away
>customers
>and the wastage is forgotten. As you approach the point when there is a
>possibility of turning away customers, you implement QOS (reserving
>bananas for
>your best repeat customers) to keep things going a bit longer. Then you simply
>order the next biggest box - the Ethernet advantage is that much higher
>speeds at
>small increments in cost are available because a simplistic approach
>allows us to
>ride the technology curve.
>
>So, whether it's networks or bananas, you need to take the approach that a
>simple
>(and apparently wasteful) approach will often beat the theoretical
>optimization
>that complicates unnecessarily.
>
>Hugh.
>
>PS - anyone want to buy some bananas?
>
>Sanjeev Mahalawat wrote:
>
> > Ariel,
> >
> > At 12:23 AM 12/6/2002 -0800, Ariel Maislos wrote:
> >
> > >Sanjeev,
> >
> > Sorry I am leaving out your economic and i-bubble content as I seem to be
> > unable to answer it. :)
> >
> > >Under these circumstances I would argue that 1% more bandwidth is not
> > >equal to 1% more bananas from each subscriber, or 1% more subscribers
> > >for that matter.
> >
> > One buys x bananas and sells only x-1 and saves 1 for oneself in case
> one gets
> > hungry and if one does not get hungry throw away. Thats not increase
> > that is loss. Now, one starts with only x-1 (low) and pay more that may be
> > different
> > choice.
> >
> > >1% more bandwidth is equal to XX more bananas in transceiver costs as we
> > >are not allowed to leverage the economies of scale inherent in Gigabit
> > >Ethernet, a market that has significantly more volume than a future
> > >ITU-T market.
> >
> > Agree if one can get x bananas from A (IEEE) in less money than x-1 (from
> > ITU-T)
> > and could make same or more money even has to throw 1 or more bananas, it
> > may make sense to buy cheap to some.
> >
> > Thanks,
> > Sanjeev
> >
> > >Ariel
> > >
> > >
> > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > From: owner-stds-802-3-efm@majordomo.ieee.org
> > > > [mailto:owner-stds-802-3-efm@majordomo.ieee.org] On Behalf Of
> > > > Sanjeev Mahalawat
> > > > Sent: Thursday, December 05, 2002 19:34
> > > > To: ariel.maislos@xxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > Cc: 'Mccammon, Kent G.'; Thomas.Murphy@xxxxxxxxxxxx;
> > > > stds-802-3-efm@ieee.org; Vipul_Bhatt@ieee.org; wdiab@cisco.com
> > > > Subject: RE: [EFM] PON Optics Telephone Conference, December 5th
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > At 02:51 PM 12/5/2002 -0800, Ariel Maislos wrote:
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > >The only questions remaining for the service providers to
> > > > answer is can
> > > > >they make more money from the network with the extra 1.2% of
> > > > bandwidth?
> > > >
> > > > SP should do the calculation. But it is tempting to see the money
> > > > difference, so just that.
> > > > This 1.2% translates to about 11.616 Mbps, around 7.5
> > > > 1.54Mbps DSL connections. Assuming $50 per DSL it is around
> > > > $377/PON/month. Assume one 32-port OLT
> > > > serving
> > > > 1024 customers (assuming 1:32 ratio) it would be
> > > > $12064/month. Does this SP lost revenue breaks their neck,
> > > > they would know?
> > > >
> > > > Thanks,
> > > > Sanjeev
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > >Regards,
> > > > > Ariel
> > > > >
> > > > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > > > From: owner-stds-802-3-efm@majordomo.ieee.org
> > > > > > [mailto:owner-stds-802-3-efm@majordomo.ieee.org] On Behalf Of
> > > > > > Mccammon, Kent G.
> > > > > > Sent: Wednesday, December 04, 2002 17:45
> > > > > > To: 'Thomas.Murphy@infineon.com'; stds-802-3-efm@ieee.org;
> > > > > > Vipul_Bhatt@xxxxxxxx; wdiab@xxxxxxxxx
> > > > > > Subject: RE: [EFM] PON Optics Telephone Conference, December 5th
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Tom,
> > > > > > Since I have a conflict with the call tomorrow and I am
> > > > interested
> > > > > > in this decision, here are some questions.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > 1)Do any of the options for PON timing impact the delivery of
> > > > > > services such as toll quality voice, a T1, or multicast video? We
> > > > > > had this concern previously and the answer previously was
> > > > claimed to
> > > > > > be only an efficiency hit for loose timing. Are the modeling
> > > > > > assumptions to compare efficiency valid for TDM services
> > > > or is that
> > > > > > not a consideration in this debate to date? 2)The negotiation of
> > > > > > timing parameters rather than a tight specification have
> > > > any impact
> > > > > > on future interoperability testing? If we ever decide to test
> > > > > > interoperability of EPON OLT and ONT, can a lab testing
> > > > > > system be reasonably built to test compliance to a
> > > > > > specification for OLT/ONT timing for the various options
> > > > > > under debate?
> > > > > > 3)Do operating temperature swings have an impact on timing
> > > > > > options. Is their reason to add extra margin or extra
> > > > > > negotiation time of timing parameters due to temperature
> > > > > > variations? What about cold start in cold temperatures, that
> > > > > > was an issue for power levels, does it also impact the
> > > > > > electronics of the PMD?
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Comment: As an advocate of PON technologies I echo my earlier
> > > > > > comments about striving for common PON PMD to get the
> > > > volume started
> > > > > > in today's economy. I am optimistic a compromise can be found in
> > > > > > January. Thanks, -Kent
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > > > > From: Thomas.Murphy@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > > > > [mailto:Thomas.Murphy@xxxxxxxxxxxx]
> > > > > > > Sent: Wednesday, December 04, 2002 10:12 AM
> > > > > > > To: stds-802-3-efm@ieee.org; Vipul_Bhatt@ieee.org;
> > > > wdiab@xxxxxxxxx
> > > > > > > Subject: [EFM] PON Optics Telephone Conference, December 5th
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Hello Again,
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Attacted two possible approaches to this discussion forming two
> > > > > > > decision trees. Glen and I worked on these I I did not have a
> > > > > > > chance to co-ordinate with him and refine to one slide.
> > > > The first
> > > > > > > slide is mine and I would like to start here as it allows us to
> > > > > > > generate values without having to make decisions. When
> > > > the values
> > > > > > > are agreed upon, we can work towards the decision and
> > > > perhaps this
> > > > > > > is simpler with the values we have.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > If this does not work, we can try the seconf slide, Glen's
> > > > > > > approach, which is a more top-down attack.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Talk to you tomorrow
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Tom
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > <<PON Timing Decision Tree.ppt>>
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Hello All,
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Items to Be Covered
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > 1) Determine the exact meaning of the terms "Fixed Value" and
> > > > > > > 'Upper Bound" in terms
> > > > > > > of their use for PMD timing parameters.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > 2) Try assign placeholder values for all of the options
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > 3) Are these values fixed or bounded for the different options.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > 4) Other items
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Regards
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Tom
> > > > > > >
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