Re: [EFM] Banana networks
- To: Roy Bynum <rabynum@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Subject: Re: [EFM] Banana networks
- From: Geoff Thompson <gthompso@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Thu, 12 Dec 2002 12:15:31 -0800
- Cc: "Geoff Thompson" <gthompso@nortelnetworks.com>, Hugh Barrass <hbarrass@cisco.com>, Sanjeev Mahalawat <sanjeev@cisco.com>, ariel.maislos@passave.com, "'Mccammon, Kent G.'" <kmccammon@tri.sbc.com>, Thomas.Murphy@infineon.com, stds-802-3-efm@ieee.org, Vipul_Bhatt@ieee.org, wdiab@cisco.com
- In-Reply-To: <5.1.0.14.2.20021210203401.00ba2310@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- References: <4.2.0.58.20021210151609.01e163f8@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx><5.1.0.14.2.20021209175825.00ba1dc8@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx><3DF4CAFA.AA3CC419@xxxxxxxxx><4.3.2.7.2.20021205191712.03c71e80@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx><4.3.2.7.2.20021206102646.016bea60@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Sender: owner-stds-802-3-efm@majordomo.ieee.org
Roy-
At 08:54 PM 12/10/2002 -0600, Roy Bynum wrote:
Geoff,
A service subscription network does not work like a privately owned LAN
facility.
Currently true. Therein lies a great part of the problem that some of us
are trying to solve.
Carriers have formulated the tariff/revenue model forever and it is based
on the "old" model that bandwidth is scarce and precious.
Customers and us cranks from the LAN industry both want the WAN to look
like a LAN
In a subscription network, there is no such
thing as "excess bandwidth". A copper facility will be
provisioned and operate at the maximum that the distance attenuation will
allow. Fiber facilities will be provisioned to provide the maximum
service bandwidth that the customer is willing to pay for. When
more than one customer can be put on the fiber facility, the service
provider will provision the maximum that the fiber will support, often
for packet/frame facilities, the bandwidth will be over provisioned in
the aggregate for all of the customers. This will hold true for
either P2P or P2MP. This is one of the economic realities of
subscription networks. The limitation of how much bandwidth and how
many customers is put on that bandwidth is strictly do to the physical
limitations of the facilities and the willingness of the sales and
marketing people to keep putting people on the same
facility.
You are assuming that the revenue/tariff model will not change.
I believe (1) that it will, if not in the US then elsewhere in the world
in countries who are willing to bet that a new model will provide a
"great lap forward" for them. and (2) if the revenue model does
not change then EFM not be a success to any significant degree.
The use of "lettuce",
"bananas", and "peanuts" was an effort to be able to
indirectly discuss issues of service functionality requirements, which up
until now, have not been fully explored. Since "services"
delivery is the specific purpose of a subscription network, without such
a discussion, how will the group know if they have achieved the basic
objective of "Support Subscriber Access Network
..."
Thank you,
Roy Bynum
The world's WAN space is awash in lit and unlit excess bandwidth.
(Transatlantic lit capacity is currently said to be 7X traffic) The
telcom industry has no way to sell a significant portion of it in the
current revenue model. Ultimately they (or their scrap dealers, who won't
care about the current revenue. That's what makes scrap
dealers/scavengers different) will have to make a decision about how to
get some revenue out of it any way they can. High jitter, high bandwidth
packet delivery systems that are terrible for real time voice and video
provide the potential for this. If the scrap dealers can sell it this way
in the regulated space I would expect them to do so. If the scrap dealers
can sell in the unregulated space then they won't have to go to the
trouble of making it jitter.
This vast vacuum of available bandwidth in the core will suck players
into the access space to provide paths to the core.. Nature abhors a
vacuum. Physics always wins in the long haul (pun intended).
Geoff
At 03:46 PM 12/10/2002 -0800, Geoff Thompson
wrote:
Roy-
I think Hugh is closer to the mark than you are here.
The Ethernet link to the end user tries to be one simple thing:
An excess bandwidth connection
to the core network and the facilities that such a network connects
to.
No peanuts vs. bananas, just one thing, excess bandwidth.
Sort of like a car.
You got two people in the family you can live with a smaller car than if
you have seven.
In either case you buy a car that has at least enough seats for the
family.
In all cases you are buying transportation capacity for your family or a
subset thereof.
Geoff
At 06:39 PM 12/9/2002 -0600, Roy Bynum wrote:
Hugh,
I think the analogy of the produce stand would be more appropriate, from
a service providers standpoint, if you were to make the produce align
with the services that are delivered, and then physical stand becomes the
delivery infrastructure, of which 802.3ah is a part. From a service
providers perspective, he has several stands in different parts of the
town that he wants to sell out of.
Just like any produce market, you have different kinds of produce,
vegetables like lettuce, fruit like bananas, and nuts like
peanuts. Sometimes the type of equipment in the stand
dictates what kind of produce he can sell, for example, vegetables like
lettuce tend to do better in refrigerated coolers than in the open heat,
while nuts like peanuts tend to like warm dry storage. Just like a
real produce stand, there are some items that people are willing to pay
more for than they are for other items. A single head of lettuce
brings a lot more than a single peanut. I am sure that every wife
would love to pay the cost of a single peanut for a head of lettuce, but
they know it does not work that way even though they complain to the
grocer. The items that do not sell for as much, must sell in higher
quantity to be able to be economical, because produce seller does make as
much off of each one that he sells. A grocer does not make as much
off of a single peanut as he does a single head of lettuce. Also,
the owner of the produce stands needs to be able to supply the produce
that meets what the customers want to eat. Trying to change the way
the customers eat produce, often does not work. Trying to sell tame
"vege-burgers" to someone from the Southwest that is used to
hot and spicy meat, would not often work. Those of you with ethnic
backgrounds know what I mean. (I am including Texans like me that prefer
beef steaks to turkey.)
The produce stand owner needs to be sure that his stands can either sell
the produce that he makes more off of, or that the produce that he makes
less off of can have a higher quantity supply. Or he has to have
stands that will sell all kinds of produce.
This is where the equipment in the stand becomes very important. If
the produce stand owner simply buys a type of equipment for his stand
tries to sell whatever can be carried by that equipment, while someone
else builds stands with different equipment that will sell either the
better produce, or be able to deliver a higher quantity of the lessor
produce, then the original owner of the produce stands will have economic
problems. This makes it not only important for the makers of the
produce stand equipment to be aware of the issues, but also the owner of
the produce stands needs to pay closer attention to what the customers
are buying so as to make sure that he is building the right kind of
produce stands.
In this analogy, 802.3ah becomes the equipment in the produce
stand. The different kinds of produce are different kinds of
services. Just like there are certain kinds of produce that people
are willing to pay more for, there are services that people are willing
to pay more for. The services that they are not willing to pay more
for must be able to deliver at a higher quantity than the higher cost
services. 802.3ah in the different media must be able to deliver
either higher quality services, or high quantity services. I am
sure that the service providers would like to migrate their customers to
the higher quantity services, but many times that does not work for
customers that are used to the higher quality. It is very difficult
to change the way that people eat.
Thank you,
Roy Bynum
At 08:55 AM 12/9/2002 -0800, Hugh Barrass wrote:
Sanjeev,
Good to see that you've introduced perishable fruit into the discussion -
more
relevant than many people expect...
If you have a fruit stand selling your bananas then you have a difficult
problem
to decide how many bananas to start each day with (for simplicity I will
assume
that you can choose to have your banana delivery each morning and also
that
bananas decompose at the end of each day). You may make a reasonable
guess at how
many you will sell on average, but you can't predict how many you will
sell on a
given day. So what should you do?
You could err on the conservative side - only buy "enough"
bananas so that on some
days you have a few bananas left over, on other days you run out before
closing
time. This way you minimize the wastage. The downside is that on many
days
customers arrive and are disappointed. Those customers may look elsewhere
for
their bananas and discover the other fruit stand that doesn't run out -
you've
lost a regular customer that will reduce your average sales.
Alternatively, you could over-provision. You buy more than the average
number of
bananas with a view to minimizing the number of days when customers are
turned
away. This will mean a larger wastage of bananas which can be weighed
against the
better overall sales figure. The advantage is that you are buying the
bananas
wholesale and selling them retail (plus tax).
The Ethernet Solution
==============
Network provisioning is a similar problem. Bandwidth must be provisioned
but
cannot be carried over from one day to the next - it is the ultimate
"perishable
resource."
Ethernet aims to make the bananas so cheap that the cost per banana can
(almost)
be ignored. You massively over-provision, you never need to turn away
customers
and the wastage is forgotten. As you approach the point when there
is a
possibility of turning away customers, you implement QOS (reserving
bananas for
your best repeat customers) to keep things going a bit longer. Then you
simply
order the next biggest box - the Ethernet advantage is that much higher
speeds at
small increments in cost are available because a simplistic approach
allows us to
ride the technology curve.
So, whether it's networks or bananas, you need to take the approach that
a simple
(and apparently wasteful) approach will often beat the theoretical
optimization
that complicates unnecessarily.
Hugh.
PS - anyone want to buy some bananas?
Sanjeev Mahalawat wrote:
> Ariel,
>
> At 12:23 AM 12/6/2002 -0800, Ariel Maislos wrote:
>
> >Sanjeev,
>
> Sorry I am leaving out your economic and i-bubble content as I seem
to be
> unable to answer it. :)
>
> >Under these circumstances I would argue that 1% more bandwidth
is not
> >equal to 1% more bananas from each subscriber, or 1% more
subscribers
> >for that matter.
>
> One buys x bananas and sells only x-1 and saves 1 for oneself in
case one gets
> hungry and if one does not get hungry throw away. Thats not
increase
> that is loss. Now, one starts with only x-1 (low) and pay more that
may be
> different
> choice.
>
> >1% more bandwidth is equal to XX more bananas in transceiver
costs as we
> >are not allowed to leverage the economies of scale inherent in
Gigabit
> >Ethernet, a market that has significantly more volume than a
future
> >ITU-T market.
>
> Agree if one can get x bananas from A (IEEE) in less money than x-1
(from
> ITU-T)
> and could make same or more money even has to throw 1 or more
bananas, it
> may make sense to buy cheap to some.
>
> Thanks,
> Sanjeev
>
> >Ariel
> >
> >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: owner-stds-802-3-efm@majordomo.ieee.org
> > >
[mailto:owner-stds-802-3-efm@majordomo.ieee.org]
On Behalf Of
> > > Sanjeev Mahalawat
> > > Sent: Thursday, December 05, 2002 19:34
> > > To: ariel.maislos@xxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Cc: 'Mccammon, Kent G.'; Thomas.Murphy@xxxxxxxxxxxx;
> > > stds-802-3-efm@ieee.org; Vipul_Bhatt@ieee.org;
wdiab@xxxxxxxxx
> > > Subject: RE: [EFM] PON Optics Telephone Conference,
December 5th
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > At 02:51 PM 12/5/2002 -0800, Ariel Maislos wrote:
> > >
> > >
> > > >The only questions remaining for the service providers
to
> > > answer is can
> > > >they make more money from the network with the extra
1.2% of
> > > bandwidth?
> > >
> > > SP should do the calculation. But it is tempting to see
the money
> > > difference, so just that.
> > > This 1.2% translates to about 11.616 Mbps, around
7.5
> > > 1.54Mbps DSL connections. Assuming $50 per DSL it is
around
> > > $377/PON/month. Assume one 32-port OLT
> > > serving
> > > 1024 customers (assuming 1:32 ratio) it would be
> > > $12064/month. Does this SP lost revenue breaks their
neck,
> > > they would know?
> > >
> > > Thanks,
> > > Sanjeev
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > >Regards,
> > > >
Ariel
> > > >
> > > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > > From:
owner-stds-802-3-efm@majordomo.ieee.org
> > > > >
[mailto:owner-stds-802-3-efm@majordomo.ieee.org]
On Behalf Of
> > > > > Mccammon, Kent G.
> > > > > Sent: Wednesday, December 04, 2002 17:45
> > > > > To: 'Thomas.Murphy@xxxxxxxxxxxx';
stds-802-3-efm@ieee.org;
> > > > > Vipul_Bhatt@xxxxxxxx; wdiab@xxxxxxxxx
> > > > > Subject: RE: [EFM] PON Optics Telephone
Conference, December 5th
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Tom,
> > > > > Since I have a conflict with the call tomorrow
and I am
> > > interested
> > > > > in this decision, here are some questions.
> > > > >
> > > > > 1)Do any of the options for PON timing impact
the delivery of
> > > > > services such as toll quality voice, a T1, or
multicast video? We
> > > > > had this concern previously and the answer
previously was
> > > claimed to
> > > > > be only an efficiency hit for loose timing. Are
the modeling
> > > > > assumptions to compare efficiency valid for TDM
services
> > > or is that
> > > > > not a consideration in this debate to date?
2)The negotiation of
> > > > > timing parameters rather than a tight
specification have
> > > any impact
> > > > > on future interoperability testing? If we
ever decide to test
> > > > > interoperability of EPON OLT and ONT, can a lab
testing
> > > > > system be reasonably built to test compliance to
a
> > > > > specification for OLT/ONT timing for the various
options
> > > > > under debate?
> > > > > 3)Do operating temperature swings have an impact
on timing
> > > > > options. Is their reason to add extra margin or
extra
> > > > > negotiation time of timing parameters due to
temperature
> > > > > variations? What about cold start in cold
temperatures, that
> > > > > was an issue for power levels, does it also
impact the
> > > > > electronics of the PMD?
> > > > >
> > > > > Comment: As an advocate of PON technologies I
echo my earlier
> > > > > comments about striving for common PON PMD to
get the
> > > volume started
> > > > > in today's economy. I am optimistic a
compromise can be found in
> > > > > January. Thanks, -Kent
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > > > From: Thomas.Murphy@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > > >
[mailto:Thomas.Murphy@xxxxxxxxxxxx]
> > > > > > Sent: Wednesday, December 04, 2002 10:12
AM
> > > > > > To: stds-802-3-efm@ieee.org;
Vipul_Bhatt@xxxxxxxx;
> > > wdiab@xxxxxxxxx
> > > > > > Subject: [EFM] PON Optics Telephone
Conference, December 5th
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Hello Again,
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Attacted two possible approaches to this
discussion forming two
> > > > > > decision trees. Glen and I worked on these
I I did not have a
> > > > > > chance to co-ordinate with him and refine
to one slide.
> > > The first
> > > > > > slide is mine and I would like to start
here as it allows us to
> > > > > > generate values without having to make
decisions. When
> > > the values
> > > > > > are agreed upon, we can work towards the
decision and
> > > perhaps this
> > > > > > is simpler with the values we have.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > If this does not work, we can try the
seconf slide, Glen's
> > > > > > approach, which is a more top-down
attack.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Talk to you tomorrow
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Tom
> > > > > >
> > > > > > <<PON Timing Decision
Tree.ppt>>
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Hello All,
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Items to Be Covered
> > > > > >
> > > > > > 1) Determine the exact meaning of the
terms "Fixed Value" and
> > > > > > 'Upper Bound" in terms
> > > > > > of their use for
PMD timing parameters.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > 2) Try assign placeholder values for
all of the options
> > > > > >
> > > > > > 3) Are these values fixed or bounded
for the different options.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > 4) Other items
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Regards
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Tom
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> >
>